We are now on to Week 4 of the NFL season and it is becoming pretty clear that Madden is an excellent source to use to predict winners of games…just in the wrong direction. Every simulation I have done with Madden (including the two prior Super Bowls) has been wrong. So picking against Madden would be a sound strategy. This week’s matchup is against two 3-0 division rivals. Let’s see if Madden can finally get one right.
As mentioned above, Madden was wrong yet again. The Chiefs rolled over the Ravens without much trouble last week. All of the writers picking the featured game got it right this week with Mulehorn117 keeping his correct pick streak alive. Und3rdog10 was even fairly close with the score. He predicted a 30-24 Chiefs win when the actual score was 33-28. Will his prediction be as spot on this week?
How the Patriots Won
The Patriots, as is their MO, won in a variety of ways. Some games they won by running up the score with big performances from Tom Brady. In other games, they pulled off big fourth-quarter comebacks, and in yet others, they had impressive defensive performances. According to Madden, they do need to score a lot of points though. In their wins, they averaged over 32 points a game and under 20 in their losses. Turnovers were also a key to success for the Patriots. In almost all of their wins, they won the turnover battle and in most forced multiple turnovers (they even had 5 in one game!).
How the Bills Won
The Bills need big games from their defense to stop the Patriots, particularly their run defense. In the games, the Bills won they held the Patriots to an average of under 60 yards rushing whereas in games they lost the Patriots rushed for an average of over 120 yards. In watching the progress of the simulations, I also noticed that the Bills won when they kept the Patriots from scoring in the Red Zone. There were several games where the Patriots would get close to scoring only to come away with a Field Goal or no points. The Bills Red Zone defense will be key for them since the Patriots will move the ball.
Josh Allen also needs to have a big game and needs to keep the turnovers to a minimum. In the simulations, the Bills did not win a game in which they had a turnover. Allen has a tough task this week with the Patriots playing so well, but a win is within reach if he can play well.
And the winner is…the Patriots!
This has been by far the most lopsided simulation that I have done on Madden with the Patriots winning 75% of the games. Most have been pretty close with only a slight edge given to one team or the other. If Madden doesn’t get this one right, I don’t know if it will get one right.
Mulehorn117 and Und3rdog10 both agree with Madden this week and predict the Patriots to come away with the victory. Darklife thinks Josh Allen will lead the Bills to a victory. Und3rdog believes in a strong Patriots defense and thinks Brady will struggle a bit. His score prediction is 24-10, Patriots. And then there is Snakedoctor98 who picked the Jets and made sure to clarify that he was not talking about the Winnepeg Jets…
I agree with Madden this week and think the Patriots will pull out the win. Over the years I have learned to not doubt Brady and Belichick. They win a lot more than they lose and siding with the Patriots will give you a pretty prediction record over the long haul.
Will Madden finally get one right? Will Mulehorn’s prediction streak continue this week?