Predicting Super Bowl LII Using Madden 2018

Articles Madden

Super Bowl LII is just a few days away and I decided to try and use EA’s Madden 18 to predict the outcome. Using the most current rosters for the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots, I simulated the game 70 times to declare a winner. Let’s see what the Madden Super Bowl prediction ends up being.

Simulation Settings and Method

I simulated the games using the Play Now mode and selected both teams. Since the Patriots will be considered the Home team, I selected them for that slot and the Eagles for the Away team. I also changed which team was considered the “player’s team,” with each team being my team 35 times. I did this to make sure to remove any bias the game may have for the human player, even when simulating the whole game.

For settings, I set the game to the All-Madden difficulty, the Event Type to Super Bowl, and Quarter Length to 15 minutes with a 20-second accelerated clock. The length of the quarters may have been a bit too long, but once I set it, I left it for all tests. I then started each game and did a quick simulation to the end.

Details of Eagle Wins

The Eagles tended to win close games. Their average margin of victory was 8.54 points. Most games were won by single digits although they had a couple of blowouts in there with a 34-0 win. One interesting aspect of the simulations was that the Eagles won 7 of the 9 overtime games, and their first win came in an overtime game. So Madden must think the Eagles will get the win if the real game goes into overtime. The Eagles also averaged almost 29 points in their wins and will probably need that if they want to beat the Patriots in real Super Bowl.

Details of Patriot Wins

While the Eagles tended to win by single digits, the Patriots had an average margin of victory of almost 12 points. There were a lot of games where the note I wrote about them was along the lines of “the Patriots controlled the entire game.” They jumped out to a lot of early leads and never lost them. They also did have a lot of games where they were down late and Tom Brady was able to bring them back and tie the game or give them the win. Even in games they lost, Brady kept it close at the end and most of the overtime games were forced by Brady. Speaking of Brady, in one game he threw for 494 yards and 7 TDs! That was a game for the ages.

And the Winner is…

The Patriots! They ended up winning the game about 63% of the time. Time will tell if the end up actually winning the big game.

What do you think? Will these Madden 18 predictions prove to be true? Who do you think will win? You can also check out EA’s simulation of the big game below.

Nate has been playing games for as long as he can remember. He enjoys playing most genres from sports games to FPSs to RPGs and action-adventure games. He also loves diving into data and making visualizations to help tell the data's story. While not gaming, Nate can be found outside hiking, walking, running, and just generally enjoying life.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>


Lost Password